Obama’s Re-election Prospects

Tony Blankley reminds us that Obama enjoys the incumbent’s advantages. He also reminds us that these advantages depends upon other factors. In modern times, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George Bush all failed to win re-election. However, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush did. Thus, the history.

Bad/good Economic times are a factor. Obama has gotten a lot of mileage claiming, “Remember, we inherited this mess.” The Republicans and the press has been remiss in reminding people that the Democrats controlled the Congress and that key Democrats were Chairman of powerful Congressional committees and that they had made sweetheart deals with the Finance Industry in the two years before the crash. Obama could still face this point in the 2012 election campaign, however.

Worse for Obama, is explaining how the current economic problems became so bad. If the aftermath of the crash was always going to be intrinsically bad, despite the best policies (which Obama claims he implemented), then why did not he or his party say so beforehand? Instead, he goes into 2012 having to explain why his policies did not take a bad situation and make it worse.

The above has to be put in the perspective of bad economic times continuing for the duration of his presidency.

Then there’s the Health Care issue. It is shaping up to be a mess. Already it is being repealed in a death of a thousand cuts. 1,000 waivers have already been issued - and not by Republicans, but by Obama’s own administration.

There’s the half trillion dollars that’s being counted twice.

A major component of Obama’s Health Care Bill CLASS, standing for Community Living Assisted Services and Support, has been declared “totally unsustainable”, again not by just Republicans but by Obama’s own cabinet secretary for Health and Human Services.

Millions of people have already seen huge increases in their health insurance premiums. In the years ahead, millions will face practical restrictions in health care access as doctors cut patients due to the HC Bill’s regulations.

These are consequential items.

After Obama tires of having to explain his domestic problems, he can look abroad. His foreign successes peaked with his Nobel Prize. Since then, his every initiative has been rebuffed.

What is significant is the degree that he has antagonized so many foreign leaders who have been otherwise supportive of American Presidents. In future crisis, he is unlikely to receive the support that Presidents have in the past.

So, much of the advantages of the incumbent will be neutralized by three area of economic policy, health care policy, and foreign policy which are likely to be disadvantageous to the President.